New Delhi: India’s wholesale inflation rate, measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), declined to 2.05% in March 2025, down from 2.38% in February, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
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The deceleration in inflation was driven by a fall in prices of food and fuel, even as manufactured product prices continued to rise, contributing to the overall positive annual WPI rate.
Month-on-Month Inflation Turns Negative
Despite the year-on-year increase, the month-on-month WPI inflation turned negative at (-)0.19%, reflecting easing cost pressures in March compared to February. The ministry noted a clear decline in the food, fuel, and power categories, which helped contain inflation on a short-term basis.
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Retail Inflation Outlook Improves
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also revised its inflation forecast downward for 2025-26, projecting Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4.0%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.2%.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the food inflation outlook has turned decisively positive, supported by:
- Record wheat production and higher pulse yields per the second advance estimates.
- Robust kharif crop arrivals and stabilization of rabi output.
- A decline in inflation expectations, based on the RBI’s latest survey.
Global Factors and Risks
The RBI Governor also pointed out that falling crude oil prices are beneficial for the inflation trajectory. However, he cautioned that global uncertainties and possible weather-related disruptions still pose risks to the inflation path.
CPI Forecast for 2025–26
- Q1: 3.6%
- Q2: 3.9%
- Q3: 3.8%
- Q4: 4.4%
Malhotra emphasized that the risks to inflation are evenly balanced, assuming a normal monsoon and stable global conditions.