Kerala Assembly Elections: Parties Aim High Even Before Dates Are Announced

Thiruvananthapuram: Even as the Election Commission of India (ECI) is yet to announce the schedule, the battle for Kerala’s 140-member Assembly has clearly begun, with the state’s traditional rivals setting ambitious numerical targets that frame the political contest ahead of the April-May polls. At a two-day brainstorming session held in Wayanad last week, the Congress leadership set the tone for the United Democratic Front (UDF) by declaring a goal of winning 100 seats.

The exercise was aimed at energising the organisation, ironing out internal differences and projecting confidence after the UDF’s improved showing in the December local body elections. Not to be outdone, the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) responded this week with an even more audacious claim. Following a three-hour special cabinet meeting chaired by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Wednesday night, the Left leadership signalled that it was targeting a massive 110-seat victory.

CM Vijayan has since rolled out a tightly structured 50-day programme, assigning cabinet ministers specific responsibilities to translate the slogan into electoral reality. However, recent electoral arithmetic offers a more sobering backdrop to these claims. The results of the December local body polls showed the UDF leading in around 80 Assembly segments, while the LDF was ahead in roughly 60. In view of this data, the Left’s projection of 110 seats appears, at least for now, more aspirational than assured.

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The third player in Kerala’s triangular contest, the BJP-led NDA, remains without representation in the current Assembly but is attempting to expand its footprint. The NDA has identified about 35 constituencies for focused campaigning, hoping to convert organisational presence into seats. While the BJP scored a high-profile victory by wresting control of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation from the Left front in the local polls, its overall vote share declined, underlining the limits of its recent gains.

The NDA is now pinning its hopes on high-voltage campaigning, with visits by Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected later this month to formally launch the Assembly election campaign. With targets set, narratives hardened, and campaign machinery slowly moving into gear, Kerala’s pre-poll contest has effectively begun — a numbers game where ambition, organisation and ground realities will soon collide.