Intel warns of orchestrated anti-India violence in Bangladesh as polls near

New Delhi: The anti-India rhetoric in Bangladesh is set to rise as the country gets set to vote in February to elect a new government. Intelligence agencies have picked up intercepts suggesting that violence is set to go up as the elections near, and these are well-planned events and not sporadic.

Drumming up the anti-India narrative is a strategy devised by the ISI-controlled Jamaat-e-Islami. While the ISI is doing this for obvious reasons, for the Jamaat, the intention is to consolidate votes based on this narrative, officials say.

New Delhi is keeping a close watch on these developments and will begin making moves on the diplomatic front once the elections are completed. Currently, India views Bangladesh as a nation that is unstable and hazardous. An Intelligence Bureau official said that violence is not being ruled out at all. However, if the Jamaat feels that it is falling back in the polls, then much more violence can be expected. The ISI wants a Jamaat government in place as it would have much more control.

The official also said that in case the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) surges ahead, then the Jamaat would unleash its cadres and create such a situation that the election process could get derailed. Anticipating anti-India protests and violence, New Delhi had decided to withdraw the families and dependents of Indian officials posted in Bangladesh. Officials cited security concerns while making this decision.

In recent weeks, violent protests have broken out in Bangladesh, during which the Indian missions have been targeted. The Jamaat has been sending a message to the people of Bangladesh that India is behind the killing of the student leader Osman Hadi. Further, the people are being told that India, which has given shelter to the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is trying to interfere in the electoral process. Such narratives are set to go up closer to the elections, and this is aimed at orchestrating violence and creating an unstable situation.

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On the security front for India, the time ahead is extremely challenging. Assam Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, while speaking to the media on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, said that the Intelligence agencies have detected the presence of top commanders of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and other militant groups in Bangladesh.

Intelligence agencies say that these elements have been brought into Bangladesh at a strategic time. While the top commanders are involved in the planning, the cadres would look to infiltrate the northeastern states and carry out acts of terror. The idea is to keep the Indian security mechanism stressed.

The ISI is planning a multi-pronged attack against India at a time when elections are approaching in Bangladesh, another official said. In Bangladesh, the anti-India narrative would be drummed up, while the minorities would be targeted. At the same time, attempts would be made to increase infiltration into India, with the targets being the northeastern states and West Bengal.

Officials say that the current phase is a challenging one, and if the Jamaat came to power, then the situation would be tricky to manoeuvre. Added to this is the Chinese and Pakistani angle. Neither country would want India to have any role to play in Bangladesh. While both countries would want a Jamaat government in place, the Chinese, in particular, would prefer Muhammad Yunus to be made President of the country once the elections are complete.

Yunus would be important for both countries as he has made several concessions once he was appointed as the caretaker of the interim government. An official said that a deal had already been struck whereby Yunus would be president if the Jamaat is voted into power.