India’s Population at 1.46 billion: UN Flags Below-Replacement Fertility, Urban TFR Worsens
India's population reaches 1.46 billion in 2025, according to a UN report, while the total fertility rate drops below the replacement level. Experts warn of worsening urban TFR and long-term demographic risks.
In a startling revelation, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in its 2025 State of World Population Report has estimated that India’s population will stand at 1.46 billion in 2025 and may continue to grow until it peaks at around 1.7 billion in the next 40 years, after which it will begin to decline.
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Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement Level
One of the most alarming findings of the report titled “The Real Fertility Crisis” is that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. This drop suggests that Indian women are now having fewer children than what is needed to maintain the population size across generations.
Urban TFR Even Lower, Risking Long-Term Population Decline
Experts warn that the urban TFR is even lower, hovering between 1.6 and 1.7, a trend seen in about 45% of India’s population living in urban areas. Dr. Manjunath from Birla Fertility & IVF cautions that if this trend continues, India’s population may shrink to around 930–940 million by 2100, mirroring the aging population patterns of Southeast Asia and Europe.
Causes: Delayed Marriages, Career Focus, and Health Issues
The fertility decline is linked to several social and medical factors:
- Delayed marriages and childbirth
- Increasing preference for single-child families
- Diminished ovarian reserves among young women
- Career-focused lifestyles, particularly among urban women
Southern states like Andhra Pradesh are reportedly experiencing sharper fertility declines than northern regions, prompting discussions on offering incentives for couples with more children.
One in Three Adults Faces Unintended Pregnancies
The report also reveals a troubling trend: 36% of adult Indians face unintended pregnancies, while 30% have unfulfilled desires for either more or fewer children, pointing to gaps in reproductive health access and education.
Experts Recommend Multi-Pronged Solutions
Medical experts stress the need for a comprehensive national strategy to address the falling fertility rate:
- Improved reproductive health services, including maternal and child healthcare
- Family-friendly policies like paid parental leave and childcare support
- Awareness on fertility health, especially the importance of conceiving between ages 25-35
- Access to fertility treatments like IVF
- Community education to dispel myths and promote balanced family planning
A Call to Action
Experts argue that while India’s large population has often been seen as a challenge, the declining fertility rate now poses a more urgent concern. Timely action is needed to preserve demographic balance and ensure economic and social stability in the decades ahead.
