Indian Stock Market Outlook: Key Global Data to Drive Sentiment This Week
The Indian stock market is set for a data-driven week as key economic indicators from around the globe are expected to shape investor sentiment and influence central bank decisions.
Mumbai: The Indian stock market is set for a data-driven week as key economic indicators from around the globe are expected to shape investor sentiment and influence central bank decisions. According to a report released Monday, inflation, industrial activity, and employment data from major economies will take center stage, with increased market volatility likely.
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Indian Stock Market Closed on April 14 for Ambedkar Jayanti
Trading on Indian stock exchanges will remain suspended on April 14 in observance of Ambedkar Jayanti. Market activity will resume on April 15, when fresh economic data is expected to guide investor strategies.
WPI Inflation Data to Be Released on April 15
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for March 2025 will be released on April 15. This critical data point will offer insight into wholesale inflation trends and production-level cost pressures. Analysts say this could play a role in shaping the Reserve Bank of India’s future interest rate decisions.
“The WPI release will help assess inflationary trends at the wholesale level and could impact expectations around RBI’s policy stance,” noted Bajaj Broking Research.
Global Economic Data to Influence Market Direction
The week from April 12 to April 19, 2025, is packed with key global economic data that could significantly sway equity markets and currency trends.
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U.S. Industrial Production and Jobless Claims
- April 16: The U.S. will publish its Industrial Production (YoY) figures for March, offering a snapshot of the strength of its manufacturing and industrial sectors.
- April 17: The Initial Jobless Claims report will provide fresh insights into the health of the U.S. labor market. A rise in claims could increase speculation about a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve.
“Labor market softness could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance, which would impact global equity and bond markets,” the Bajaj Broking note said.
China’s Q1 GDP and Industrial Data in Focus
- April 16: China will report three key indicators:
- Q1 GDP growth (quarter-on-quarter)
- Industrial Production (YoY) for March
- Unemployment Rate for March
These figures will be pivotal in gauging the strength of China’s economic recovery, especially in the post-pandemic era.
“Strong numbers from China could lift global market sentiment, especially for commodities and industries reliant on Chinese demand,” the report added.
What to Expect for Indian Equities
Given the global macroeconomic calendar, Indian equities may experience heightened volatility through the week. Sectors sensitive to inflation, interest rates, and international trade could be most affected, including banking, FMCG, IT, and metals.
