Shift in Political Loyalties Ahead of Kerala Polls as CM Vijayan Battles Anti-Incumbency

Thiruvananthapuram: As Kerala prepares for local body elections this year and the crucial Assembly polls in 2026, the political landscape in the state is witnessing signs of a shift in loyalties.

The ruling CPI(M)-led Left Front, which has been in power since 2016, is grappling with growing anti-incumbency as Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s popularity begins to dip.

Meanwhile, the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front), currently in opposition, is eyeing the opportunity to form the next government in 2026 as the ruling party faces mounting challenges.

Growing Discontent with the Pinarayi Vijayan Government

The CPI(M)-led government in Kerala, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, is now entering its ninth consecutive year in power. This extended tenure is beginning to show signs of wear as the government struggles with growing dissatisfaction among the public. Popularity dips and issues surrounding governance have led to increasing disillusionment, especially among the Left’s allies.

The Congress-led UDF, having been relegated to the opposition for the past several years, is seeing this as a potential opening for a comeback. The UDF is hopeful that with the Left Front’s political troubles and anti-incumbency sentiment growing, it will be able to take control of the government by the 2026 Assembly polls.

Restlessness Among Left Front Allies and Potential Defections

The CPI(M)-led Left Front, particularly its allies, has begun to show signs of restlessness. Political leaders within the Left and its allied parties, like the Kerala Congress (M) and Kerala Congress (B), are increasingly dissatisfied with the current leadership and governance under Chief Minister Vijayan.

Notably, the Kerala Congress (M), led by Jose K. Mani, had been a key ally of the Left Front until recently. Despite being part of the Left, the Kerala Congress (M) has expressed growing frustration with the Left Front leadership. According to sources within the party, the rank and file of Kerala Congress (M) feel sidelined, and its leadership is seriously considering a shift in alliance. The party’s longstanding support base, particularly from religious organizations, also seems to be wavering in its loyalty to the Left.

“Jose K. Mani and his party are unhappy with being in the Left alliance. Even the church leaders who have traditionally supported them are not pleased with the current political situation,” said a top political leader close to the Kerala Congress (M), speaking on the condition of anonymity.

This growing dissatisfaction has led many to believe that the Kerala Congress (M) could rejoin the Congress-led UDF before the 2026 Assembly elections, potentially becoming a game-changer in the state’s political dynamics.

UDF Open to New Alliances and Welcomes Defectors

The UDF is actively making overtures to the Left’s disillusioned allies. Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a major ally of the Congress within the UDF, has already extended a welcoming gesture. PMA Salam, the general secretary of IUML, stated that the UDF’s doors are open to those dissatisfied with the Left.

“The UDF is open, and its doors are never closed. We are willing to include those who want to join our ranks,” Salam said, indicating that the UDF is looking to strengthen its position by bringing more parties into its fold.

Moreover, the Congress leadership is keen on incorporating Kerala Congress (M) back into the UDF fold, especially considering the party’s significant influence in the central districts of Kerala. The strategic importance of the Kerala Congress (M) could prove pivotal in the upcoming elections.

Also Read | Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan Strikes Back: Congress Leaders Named in FIR Over Suicide Case

BJP Consolidates Its Position, UDF Must Act Quickly

Amidst this political uncertainty, the BJP-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) is also consolidating its position in Kerala. The rise of the BJP in Kerala could be a major factor in influencing UDF’s strategy, as the Congress-led alliance cannot afford to remain in opposition for a third consecutive term. In this light, UDF leadership is becoming more proactive in exploring new alliances and ensuring that it remains a strong contender for power.

A recent example of shifting political allegiances is the case of P.V. Anvar, a two-time Left Independent legislator who was ousted but is now reportedly willing to join the UDF. Anvar’s potential entry into the UDF could further solidify the opposition’s position, especially with the backing of the IUML, which is advocating for his inclusion.

Anticipated Political Shifts Leading to 2026 Assembly Elections

With Kerala’s legislative assembly polls scheduled for April or May 2026, the political atmosphere in the state is charged with speculation about possible defections and shifting alliances. In particular, the possibility of the Kerala Congress (M) rejoining the UDF, along with other potential defections from the Left Front, could dramatically alter the political landscape.

The current political situation is fluid, and it remains to be seen how the political tides will shift in the coming months. With Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s government grappling with anti-incumbency and restlessness among allies, the political fortunes in Kerala are set to change as the Assembly elections approach.