Visits by Pakistan Army brass, PM’s advisor spark fears of election disruption in Bangladesh

New Delhi: Ahead of the much-anticipated elections in Bangladesh slated for 2026, there are clear signs that the exercise would not be a peaceful affair. Pakistan is trying to maintain leverage in Dhaka and in order to do so, it is attempting to exploit the fault lines within the political ecosystem. With the Awami League banned from contesting the elections, all eyes would be on the BNP the largest Opposition and the Jamaat-e-Islami, a stooge of the ISI that controls the system in the country today.

Although Muhammad Yunus may be in charge of Bangladesh, he follows the ISI’s script that is executed by the Jamaat. Even as the Jamaat has already signalled that there would be violence during the elections or in the run up to it, Indian agencies have picked up information about a visit by eight high ranking Pakistan Army officials to Bangladesh. While some of them are serving officials of the Army, the others are retired.

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These officials include, Brigadier Shoeb Asif Khan, Raja Irfan Yaseen, Muhammad Ashraf Shahid, Syed Saqib, Murtaza, Muhammad Meraj, Afzal Ahmed Khan, Lt. Col (Retd) Ullah and Waqar Ur Rahman. Intelligence officials say that these officials had flown into Dhaka last week. Once in Bangladesh, they hired choppers and reached the India-Bangladesh border. They held talks with militants operating along the border areas and instructed them to indulge in violence both in Bangladesh as well as the border areas as soon as the elections are round the corner.

Prior to this, two visits by a former member of the Pakistan Parliament and an advisor to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, too, have come under the radar of the Intelligence agencies. Shah Mahmood, a former MP and Shah Baz Humaira visited Bangladesh and engaged with the political class. The two then exited Bangladesh on November 16. These developments come in the backdrop of Jamaat-e-Islami emir Dr. Shafiqur Rahman warning of election genocide if the polls and the national referendum are held on the same day.

He feels that the elections do not provide a level playing field and holding two major events on the same day could overwhelm the system. Experts say that the Jamaat is no doubt insecure. Currently with Yunus at the helm, the Jamaat calls the shots at the behest of the ISI. All polls for now show that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has the clear edge in the absence of the Awami League. The Jamaat currently stands a distant second and hence is insecure about the outcome of the elections.

The BNP and Jamaat have parted ways and if the former were to win the elections, then the latter cannot have its way in the country. The BNP clearly wants normalcy to return and is unlikely to tow a radical path as it did during its earlier terms. It is also looking to change the image it had created for itself during its earlier stints and this is something that both the ISI and Jamaat are not happy about. Another irritant is that the BNP is ready to work with India and mend ties.

Officials from India have been in touch with office bearers of the BNP over the last year and both feel the need to share friendly ties in the interest of the two nations. Hence, the only option left is to indulge in violence and derail the election process. The ISI clearly wants the Jamaat to be in control so that it could run the show like a proxy. If the Jamaat remains at the helm, then the ISI could run its trading camps and modules without any pressure from the system. This is in fact part of the ISI’s larger plan to keep the northeaster border under stress so that it affects India’s national security, officials say.

Under Yunus, Pakistan has received plenty of concessions. The opening of the sea routes, relaxation of visa norms and the restoration of ties with the intention of hurting India is what Pakistan has got under Yunus. Now, there is a lot of stress as the election day approaches as it feels that its proxy the Jamaat may lose control over the system. Hence, Pakistan has set in motion a massive plan to disrupt the elections and ensure that Bangladesh remains Jamaat controlled, an Intelligence Bureau official said.