Gold on Fire: Experts Split as Prices Near ₹1 Lakh — Record Highs Coming or Market Crash Brewing?

Gold prices have been on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks, breaching the ₹97,000 per 10 grams mark in India. This spike comes amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating trade tensions between the US and China, largely fueled by former President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.

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Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset in Turbulent Times

Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold attracts investors during periods of high volatility in equity markets. As investors move funds away from riskier assets, the demand for gold increases, driving prices higher.

The current economic environment, marked by global geopolitical instability, has intensified this trend. However, experts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of gold prices.

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Will Gold Hit ₹1 Lakh in 2025?

Several analysts believe that the gold rally is far from over and that the price could hit ₹1 lakh per 10 grams by the end of 2025.

• Ryan McIntyre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sprott Asset Management, attributes the current bullish momentum to central bank buying and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
• Colin Shah, Managing Director at Kama Jewelry, shared with The Hindu Businessline that gold could likely reach ₹1 lakh this year, driven by expectations of two interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. He highlighted that during economic downturns, gold continues to attract safe-haven flows.
• Kishore Narne, Director & Head of Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, took it a step further on CNBCTV18, stating that there is “no ceiling” for gold prices, and they could even rise to $4,000–$4,500 per ounce in the global market.

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Or Will It Crash by 40%?

Not everyone shares this optimism. A few experts caution that the current rally could soon reverse.

• Chintan Mehta, CEO of Abans Financial Services, told Mint that the rally is merely a continuation of existing trends, not the beginning of a new upcycle. He believes gold is unlikely to breach the ₹1 lakh mark as most positive factors are already priced in.
• John Mills, Market Strategist at Morningstar, predicts a sharp correction, warning that gold could fall to $1,820 per ounce — a 38-40% drop from current levels. He cites reasons like increased supply, diminishing demand, and potential market saturation.

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What Lies Ahead?

The gold market remains delicately poised. With some forecasting a massive surge and others predicting a drastic fall, the only certainty is continued volatility.

Investors are advised to approach with caution and consult certified financial advisors before making any decisions.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by experts are personal opinions and do not represent the stance of this platform. Investment decisions should be made after thorough research and professional consultation.