Shehbaz Sharif Set to Become Pakistan’s Next PM

Islamabad: In a significant political development in Pakistan, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) have agreed to form a coalition government. However, the PPP has stated that its support will be contingent on a case-by-case basis.

Key Points:

• The PPP, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and the PML-N, led by three-time Premier Nawaz Sharif, announced late Tuesday night that they had reached a power-sharing agreement.
• The PPP will not take cabinet positions but will vote for the PML-N’s prime minister candidate, Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif, who is currently in prison on corruption charges.
• The agreement includes the PPP seeking key offices such as the presidency, chairman of the upper house of parliament, and governors in two of the four provinces.
• The coalition will also involve smaller parties such as the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Balochistan National Party (BNP).
• Candidates backed by Imran Khan’s party won 93 seats but lack the numbers to form a government, with Khan and his party rejecting the election results due to alleged widespread rigging.

Why It Matters:

• The conditional support from the PPP adds a layer of complexity to the government’s decision-making process, particularly as it navigates economic challenges and faces opposition led by supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
• The upcoming government’s biggest challenge will be reaching consensus on critical fiscal tightening measures under a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, which expires in March.
• Other significant issues include the privatization of state-owned enterprises, notably the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), a move supported by the PML-N but opposed by the PPP.

What’s Next:

• Parliament is set to elect the prime minister on February 25, followed by the president and the chairman of the senate.
• Meanwhile, political tensions persist as Imran Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), rejects the election results, demanding the resignation of the Election Commission’s head.

Implications for India:

• Former PM Nawaz Sharif stressed the importance of improving relations with neighboring countries during the campaign, particularly highlighting the need to mend ties with India and Afghanistan.
• The prospect of a government led by the Sharifs raises the possibility of renewed efforts towards enhancing Pakistan’s relations with India, with Nawaz recalling past diplomatic engagements during his party’s rule.
• Ajay Bisaria, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, emphasized that India’s approach towards Pakistan is based on realistic assessments, acknowledging that civilian governments may have limited influence on policy towards India but noting the Sharifs’ comparatively better track record in engaging with India compared to Imran Khan’s PTI government.