Indian Rupee Weakens Against Dirham Amid Tariff Uncertainty – What Expats Should Know

Dubai: Indian expatriates in the UAE are facing a challenging situation as the Indian rupee (INR) continues to weaken against the dirham. The current exchange rate stands at 23.30-23.33 to a dirham, significantly lower than the 23.94 recorded on February 10, 2025. This decline is raising concerns about potential future fluctuations, especially in light of recent announcements from US President Donald Trump regarding new tariffs on imports.

Currency Exchange Volatility and Predictions for the Indian Rupee

The value of the Indian rupee has been on a downward trajectory since mid-March, with the dirham strengthening from 23.50 to 23.30 to the rupee in just a few weeks. According to Neelesh Gopalan, Senior FX Analyst at a Dubai-based fintech company, the recent shift reflects a 1% appreciation in the INR compared to early March levels. “The debate has now shifted from when the INR would hit 24 to whether it will stabilize at 23.30 or strengthen further to 22,” Gopalan noted.

However, currency exchange experts are advising Indian expats to consider sending remittances sooner rather than later. As one official from a leading remittance service provider put it, “The next 24 hours could bring increased volatility as markets try to adjust to the new US tariffs.”

US Tariffs to Pressure the Indian Rupee

The imposition of new tariffs by the US is expected to have a significant impact on global markets, particularly on currencies like the INR. According to Krishnan Ramachandran, CEO of Barjeel Geojit Financial Services, the tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on the Indian rupee, potentially pushing the INR to 23.55-23.60 levels in the coming weeks.

The US decision to introduce broad tariffs on imports from numerous countries has already stirred concerns among investors, especially in Asia. Experts warn that this geopolitical uncertainty could drive further instability in currency exchange rates.

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Dollar Index Impact and Broader Market Sentiment

Another crucial factor in the currency equation is the performance of the US dollar. As the global reserve currency, any instability or uncertainty surrounding the dollar can lead to ripple effects in global markets. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar relative to other currencies, has fallen nearly 5% since January 2025. This decline is contributing to heightened concerns about the dollar’s long-term stability, as noted by Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.

“With the dollar as the global reserve currency, any uncertainty or politicized policy decisions are bound to make global investors nervous,” Green said. “The loss of investor confidence in the dollar could impact global trade, especially with countries like India.”

Impact on Expats and Remittance Strategies

For Indian expatriates in the UAE, the current exchange rate and ongoing volatility pose significant challenges when sending money home. With the Indian rupee already showing signs of weakness, remitters are advised to act swiftly before the situation worsens. Currency exchange house officials suggest that sending money now could help expats lock in better rates before the rupee potentially weakens further.

Key Takeaways:

• The Indian rupee is trading at 23.30-23.33 against the dirham, down from 23.94 in February 2025.
• Experts predict potential volatility in currency exchange rates due to new US tariffs.
• The US dollar’s decline could exert further pressure on the INR, pushing it to 23.55-23.60 levels.
• Indian expats are advised to send remittances soon, as markets remain uncertain.