Market Outlook: RBI MPC, CPI, tariffs and global economic data key triggers for next week

Mumbai: Upcoming Key Factors Driving Market Sentiment The equity market outlook for the upcoming week will be influenced by a mix of domestic and global economic triggers. Key events to watch out for include the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, India’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for March, industrial production figures, and global economic developments, especially around trade tariffs and inflation data from the United States and the UK.

RBI MPC Decision and Domestic Data to Guide Market Sentiment

On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the RBI MPC decision, which is scheduled for April 9. This announcement will offer crucial insights into the central bank’s stance on interest rates and its outlook for India’s economy. The markets will closely track any cues on monetary policy, inflation management, and economic growth.

Additionally, the March CPI data and industrial production figures for March will be released on April 11, providing key indicators on inflationary pressures and economic activity in India. These releases are likely to impact market direction, depending on how the numbers align with market expectations.

Global Economic Data and Trade Concerns Affecting Investor Sentiment

On the global front, the market will also be monitoring several key economic reports. The minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, along with the US CPI data and the UK GDP report, will be closely watched by investors. These reports will give clues about the monetary policy direction in the US and the overall health of the global economy.

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Equity Market Faces Volatility Amid Global Trade Tensions

Indian benchmark indices ended the previous week on a negative note, with both the Sensex and Nifty witnessing sharp declines. The Sensex fell by 2.65% to 75,364.69, while the Nifty dropped by 2.61% to 22,904.45. This marked the end of a two-week winning streak, primarily driven by escalating global trade tensions. The market reacted to US President Donald Trump’s announcement of steep reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including a 27% levy on select Indian goods.

Sectoral Performance: IT and Metals Worst Hit

On the sectoral front, the IT and metal stocks were the worst performers. The IT sector plunged by 9.15%, and the metal sector dropped by 7.46%, while FMCG stocks were the only sector to see modest gains, rising by 0.45%. This suggests that defensive buying was taking place amidst the market volatility.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) Turn Aggressive Sellers

The selling pressure was compounded by aggressive selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who pulled out around Rs 13,730 crore from the cash segment. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided some support, with net inflows of around Rs 5,632 crore, helping to limit the market’s decline.

Technical Analysis: Nifty’s Key Support and Resistance Levels

Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, highlighted that the Nifty 50 index had slipped to a two-week low amid rising concerns over a global trade war and the potential for a recession. The market sentiment remains negative, with key support levels at 22,300 and 22,000. On the upside, the 22,800 level is expected to act as strong resistance. In the current market environment, Singhania recommended a “sell-on-rise” strategy and advised traders to remain cautious and avoid aggressive long positions until market stability is restored.

Cautious Approach Needed in Volatile Market Conditions

The equity market will remain volatile next week due to several key domestic and global triggers. Investors are advised to stay alert and adopt a cautious approach as the RBI MPC decision and economic data releases unfold. Traders should focus on key support and resistance levels while being mindful of the ongoing trade tensions and global economic uncertainty.