India Monsoon 2026 Forecast: IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall Across Country
IMD Monsoon Forecast 2026 predicts below-normal rainfall in India at 92% of LPA. El Niño impact likely during June–September season.
In an important update, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its Monsoon 2026 forecast, predicting that the southwest monsoon rainfall in India (June to September) is likely to be below normal. The announcement was made by the Regional Meteorological Centre Chennai on April 14.
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According to the IMD monsoon forecast 2026, the total rainfall across the country is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of ±5%.
Key Highlights of India Monsoon 2026 Forecast
The IMD shared several important details regarding the India monsoon 2026 rainfall prediction:
- Expected Rainfall: 92% of LPA (below normal)
- Margin of Variation: ±5%
- Average Rainfall (1971–2020): 87 cm across India
- Season Duration: June to September (Southwest Monsoon)
Most regions in India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, although some areas may see normal or above-normal rain.
Regions Likely to Receive Better Rainfall
Despite the overall below-normal prediction, IMD stated that certain regions may experience better rainfall:
- North-East India
- North-West India
- Parts of South Peninsular India
These areas could receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
ENSO and El Niño Impact on Monsoon 2026
The IMD highlighted the role of climate patterns in shaping the Monsoon 2026 forecast:
- April to June 2026: ENSO-neutral conditions expected
- During Monsoon Season: High chances of El Niño developing
The possible emergence of El Niño is considered a key factor behind the below-normal monsoon forecast in India.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Snowfall Impact
Other climatic indicators shared by IMD include:
- Current IOD Status: Neutral
- Expected Trend: Positive IOD likely by end of season (favorable for rainfall)
- Snowfall Observation: Below-normal snowfall in Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia (Jan–March 2026), considered a positive signal
These factors may partially support rainfall, despite the overall below-normal outlook.
India Monsoon 2026 Likely Below Normal
The IMD Monsoon Forecast 2026 clearly indicates that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall at 92% of LPA during the southwest monsoon season. While some regions may benefit from normal rainfall, the overall outlook suggests caution for agriculture and water management sectors as the country prepares for the upcoming monsoon.
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